Preference Reversals Under Ambiguity
نویسنده
چکیده
Preference reversals have been widely studied using risky or riskless gambles. However, little is known about preference reversals under ambiguity. We asked subjects to make a binary choice between ambiguous P-bets and ambiguous $-bets and elicited their willingness to accept. Subjects then performed the same two tasks with risky bets, where the probability of winning for a given risky bet is the center of the probability interval of the corresponding ambiguous bet. Preference reversals are not only replicated under ambiguity but are even stronger than those under risk. This is due to higher elicited prices for the $-bet and lower elicited prices for the P-bet under ambiguity than under risk. We explain this result by the shape of the probability-weighting function for different levels of uncertainty and for different elicitation modes. JEL classification: D81, D03, C91.
منابع مشابه
Preference Reversals to Explain Ambiguity Aversion
Preference reversals are found in measurements of ambiguity aversion even under constant psychological and informational circumstances. The reversals are of a fundamentally different nature than the reversals found before because they cannot be explained by context-dependent weightings of attributes. We offer an explanation based on Sugden’s random-reference theory with different elicitation me...
متن کاملPreference Reversals for Ambiguity Aversion
T paper finds preference reversals in measurements of ambiguity aversion, even if psychological and informational circumstances are kept constant. The reversals are of a fundamentally different nature than the reversals found before because they cannot be explained by context-dependent weightings of attributes. We offer an explanation based on Sugden’s random-reference theory, with different el...
متن کاملPreference Reversals in Decision Making Under Risk are Accompanied by Changes in Attention to Different Attributes
Recent work has shown that visual fixations reflect and influence trial-to-trial variability in people's preferences between goods. Here we extend this principle to attribute weights during decision making under risk. We measured eye movements while people chose between two risky gambles or bid on a single gamble. Consistent with previous work, we found that people exhibited systematic preferen...
متن کاملPreference Reversals and Probabilistic Choice
Preference reversals occur when different (but formally equivalent) elicitation methods reveal conflicting preferences over two alternatives. This paper shows that when people have fuzzy preferences i.e. when they choose in a probabilistic manner, their observed decisions can generate systematic preference reversals. A simple model of probabilistic choice and valuation can account for a higher ...
متن کاملWhy Contextual Preference Reversals Maximize Expected Value
Contextual preference reversals occur when a preference for one option over another is reversed by the addition of further options. It has been argued that the occurrence of preference reversals in human behavior shows that people violate the axioms of rational choice and that people are not, therefore, expected value maximizers. In contrast, we demonstrate that if a person is only able to make...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Management Science
دوره 57 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011